Why GLP-1 Popularity Makes Now The Time To Invest In A Strength Training Fitness Franchise
GLP-1s And The Strength Training Opportunity
Eleven percent of US adults now take a GLP-1, federal subsidy is pushing that number higher, and the trials show a quarter to nearly half of the weight they lose is lean mass rather than fat. Forty-one percent of those users have never done strength training in their lives. That is a clinical need meeting an untrained population, arriving as prescription rather than fashion, and it is the clearest demand case fitness franchising has seen in a decade. Here is the peer-reviewed science, the policy expansion, the market data, and what it means for a prospective owner. This guide is part of the complete fitness franchise guide.
The Short Version
- Gallup put GLP-1 use at 11% of US adults in 2026, up from 3% in 2024, and PwC found 21% of households now include a current user.
- Across the registration trials, roughly 20% to 40% of the weight lost on GLP-1 therapy came from lean mass, and in STEP 1 the figure was higher still.
- Resistance training plus adequate protein is the evidence-backed answer, and case reports show patients who trained preserved or even added lean tissue.
- The market gap is the opportunity: 41% of current GLP-1 users have never done strength training, and 72% report exercising more since starting.
- Federal subsidy is expanding the pool further, with Medicare pricing near $245 a month, $50 copays, and coverage reaching into Medicaid and Medicare for the first time.
11 Percent Of US Adults, And Climbing
In 2024, roughly 3 percent of US adults were taking a GLP-1 medication for weight loss. By 2026 Gallup put that figure at 11 percent currently taking one and 15 percent having used one at some point, and PwC analysis of Numerator data found that about one in five American households now includes a current user, up from 9 percent in January 2025. The global market for these drugs has passed 132 billion dollars and large-employer coverage expanded from 28 percent to 43 percent in a single year. Whatever else is true about the fitness industry right now, tens of millions of American adults are actively reshaping their bodies with pharmaceutical help, and the physiology of how that happens creates a specific, documented need. If you are evaluating fitness franchise ownership against this backdrop, the qualification check takes about two minutes.
The Government Just Expanded The Market
The demand curve described above was built on private payers and cash buyers. In November 2025 the federal government changed the ceiling. The administration announced agreements with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk setting a Medicare price of about 245 dollars a month for injectable semaglutide and tirzepatide across all doses and indications, with beneficiary copays capped at 50 dollars, alongside a direct-to-consumer platform offering the same drugs near 350 dollars a month. For context, list prices had commonly run past 1,000 dollars a month. The first oral GLP-1 was approved in December 2025 with introductory pricing near 149 dollars for the lowest dose. Medicare had been statutorily barred from covering drugs for weight loss since 2003, so CMS is implementing this through demonstration authorities rather than a rule change, including a Part D demonstration and the BALANCE model run through the CMS Innovation Center.
What Subsidized Access Does To The Population
The practical effect is a step change in who can afford these medications. Analysts estimate the expanded Medicare coverage could reach roughly 10 percent of Medicare beneficiaries, and broader eligibility analyses have put as many as 13.7 million beneficiaries, about one quarter of the program, within range depending on how criteria are drawn. State Medicaid programs gained access to the same negotiated pricing, and 13 states already covered GLP-1s for obesity under fee-for-service as of January 2026, with the BALANCE model opening a path for more. Employer coverage moved from 28 percent to 43 percent of large employers in a single year, and analysts expect Medicare coverage to increase that pressure further. Every one of those newly covered patients is a person whose physician is about to hand them a medication that the trials show will take lean mass along with fat.
The Fiscal Rationale, Told Honestly
The stated policy logic is that treating obesity now reduces the cost of treating its consequences later, and a CMS official has said publicly that the agency expects the model to save federal dollars over the long run as beneficiaries become healthier and use less care. It is worth being straight about the evidence on that point rather than repeating the talking point, because a serious investor will check. The Congressional Budget Office analyzed adding weight-loss drugs to Part D and projected 38.8 billion dollars in added drug spending against only 3.4 billion in offsetting medical savings, a net federal increase of about 35.5 billion dollars from 2026 to 2034. A 2025 economic evaluation in the JAMA network projected 65.9 billion in Medicare drug costs against 18.2 billion in health care savings over ten years. CBO also stated plainly that it was not aware of direct evidence showing GLP-1 obesity treatment reduces spending on other medical services.
| Trial / Medication | Total Weight Reduction | Share From Lean Mass |
|---|---|---|
| STEP 1, semaglutide 2.4 mg | About 15% over 68 weeks | Roughly 40% to 45% |
| SURMOUNT-1, tirzepatide | 15% to 21% over 72 weeks | Roughly 26% to 34% |
| SUSTAIN 8, semaglutide | About 6% | Roughly 43% |
| Liraglutide, reported range | Varies | Up to 60% |
| Class-wide meta-analyses | Varies | Roughly 20% to 30% |
Why The Debate Does Not Change The Thesis
Whether taxpayers come out ahead is genuinely contested and will take a decade to settle. What is not contested is the thing that matters for a fitness franchise owner. The federal government has decided to subsidize access at scale, prices to patients are falling by an order of magnitude, and the covered population is expanding from the privately insured into Medicare and Medicaid. The policy debate is about who pays. The demand story is about how many people are on these medications, and every arrow there points the same direction. A larger, older, and less affluent population starting GLP-1 therapy is a larger population facing the lean mass question the research documents, and older patients are precisely the group for whom loss of muscle carries the steepest functional consequences.
The Science: What GLP-1s Do To Lean Mass
GLP-1 receptor agonists produce weight loss by reducing appetite and slowing gastric emptying, and the results are substantial. In the STEP 1 trial published in the New England Journal of Medicine, weekly semaglutide produced about 15 percent mean body weight loss over 68 weeks, and in SURMOUNT-1 tirzepatide produced 15 to 21 percent over 72 weeks. The part that matters for fitness is what that weight is made of. A 2024 review in Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism reported that in STEP 1 lean mass fell by 6.92 kg against a total weight reduction of 15.3 kg, meaning roughly 45 percent of the weight lost came from lean mass, while SURMOUNT-1 yielded about 26 percent. A primer in Circulation put the range for semaglutide at up to 40 percent of total weight lost and liraglutide at up to 60 percent. Two recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses land in the 20 to 30 percent range across the class.
Why That Number Matters Clinically
Some lean mass reduction is normal in any weight loss, so context matters, and researchers are actively debating whether these changes are adaptive or harmful. In STEP 1 and SUSTAIN 8, lean mass as a proportion of total body mass actually rose, which is an improvement in body composition. The SEMALEAN study found that sarcopenic obesity prevalence fell from 49 percent at baseline to 33 percent at twelve months, with handgrip strength improving by 4.5 kg. The concern is not that every patient is harmed, it is that a meaningful minority are at real risk. One 2026 analysis of nearly 8,000 patients in routine care identified a depletive metabotype, more than 20 percent body weight loss with more than 5 percent lean body mass loss, occurring in 10.3 percent of tirzepatide patients and 6.7 percent of semaglutide patients. Higher doses and longer exposure both tracked with greater lean mass reduction.
Resistance Training Is The Documented Answer
This is where the opportunity turns from a health story into a business one. The intervention literature is consistent that resistance training plus adequate protein is what preserves lean tissue during weight reduction. A case series published in 2025 followed three patients on semaglutide or tirzepatide who trained with resistance 3 to 5 days a week and ate 1.6 to 2.3 g of protein per kg of fat-free mass. Their lean soft tissue outcomes were minus 6.9 percent, plus 2.5 percent, and plus 5.8 percent, meaning two of the three gained lean tissue while dropping 27 to 33 percent of their body weight. The S-LiTE trial remains the most direct clinical evidence, pairing supervised group aerobic and resistance training of more than 150 minutes a week with liraglutide and producing the best lean mass retention of any arm. Multiple randomized trials are now running specifically on this question, including LEAN-PREP and a tirzepatide resistance-training trial.
The Market Data Contradicts The Fear
The fitness industry initially feared these drugs would empty gyms by removing the reason to exercise. The data says the opposite is happening. A William Blair survey of GLP-1 users found 72 percent were exercising more frequently after starting the medication, up from 60 percent in the prior year, and gym membership among users rose to 35 percent, with membership among users under 45 jumping to 62 percent. European fitness membership grew from 71.4 million in 2024 to 75.5 million in 2025 during the same period that medication use was climbing. One analysis projected the market for gyms, studios, and fitness clubs would expand by 20 percent, about 6.8 billion dollars, because of GLP-1 adoption. Medication and membership are turning out to be complements rather than substitutes.
The Specific Gap: 41 Percent Have Never Trained
Here is the single most actionable number in the entire dataset, and it comes from PwC. Among current GLP-1 users, 21 percent have increased strength training, 17 percent have reduced it, and 41 percent have never done it at all. Four in ten people who now have a documented clinical reason to lift weights have never lifted weights. They do not know how to start, what to do, or whether they are doing it right, which is the exact problem a coached studio format exists to solve. Meanwhile the same survey found cardio is the most active category among users and group fitness is under pressure, with 14 percent reducing class frequency against 11 percent increasing it. That nuance matters for a prospective owner, and it points somewhere specific.
Why This Favors Strength-Based Concepts
Read those two findings together and the strategic conclusion is fairly clear. A studio whose entire value proposition is calorie burn is selling the thing the medication now delivers more easily, which is why generic weight-loss-positioned group fitness is the exposed model. A studio built around strength and coached resistance work is selling the thing the medication cannot deliver and actively depletes. That is a durable position rather than a competing one. The strongest format is arguably one that pairs both, because the market data shows cardio participation rising among these users while strength is the underserved need, so a concept that programs cardio and strength together captures the behavior people already have and the behavior they now require. Add structured recovery and you have covered the full picture of what a body under rapid compositional change actually needs.
Why The Timing Is Unusual
Most fitness trends arrive as consumer preference and fade the same way. This one arrives as clinical necessity, prescribed by physicians, reinforced by every follow-up appointment, and increasingly covered by employers. The demand is not a fashion in workout formats, it is a physiological consequence of a medication that tens of millions of people are taking and, in most cases, intend to keep taking. Pharmaceutical companies are spending heavily on muscle-preserving drug candidates precisely because the lean mass problem is real and unsolved, with BioAge, Regeneron, and Veru all running trials on it. The lower-cost, immediately available version of that solution is a coach and a set of weights. A franchise owner opening now is opening into a demand curve that is early, documented, and rising rather than speculative.
What This Means For A Prospective Owner
Three practical implications follow. First, concept selection matters more than it did five years ago, and a concept that includes real strength programming is positioned for where demand is heading rather than where it has been. Second, the incoming member is different, often a first-timer who needs coaching, scaling, and a room where a beginner is not embarrassed, which favors capped coached classes over an open floor of equipment. Third, retention economics improve when the reason to attend is medical rather than motivational, because a member preserving lean mass during active treatment has a reason to show up that does not evaporate in February. Our guide to how gyms keep members covers why that distinction drives the business, and choosing the best fitness franchise lays out how to weigh a concept against a trend like this one.
First Business? Consider A Proven System.
STRIDE Fitness owners start with a validated concept, a written playbook, and a team that has opened studios before. The qualification check takes about two minutes and the minimums are published openly.
How STRIDE Fitness Is Built For This
STRIDE Fitness runs a three-pillar model, strength, cardio, and recovery in one membership, which maps directly onto what the research above describes. The strength pillar addresses the lean mass need the trials document. The cardio pillar on Woodway treadmills matches the category these users are already increasing most. The dedicated Recovery Zone in every studio serves a body under rapid compositional change. Our full explainer on what a treadmill-based workout actually is walks through how the three pillars work together, and the interval training franchise comparison places the model against the category. The brand began awarding territories in 2024 and is led by CEO Shaun Grove, who scaled Club Pilates past 700 studios before acquiring STRIDE Fitness.
The First Step Costs Nothing
None of this makes any franchise a certainty, and this article is market analysis rather than medical or financial advice. What the evidence does support is that the demand case for coached strength training is stronger and better documented now than at any point in the last decade, and that it is arriving from a direction the industry did not expect. If you want to evaluate what that means for a specific market, the qualification check runs instantly and costs nothing, and qualified candidates review the model, the unit economics, and the open territories directly with the STRIDE Fitness Franchise Development team. Candidates bring a minimum of $500K net worth and $200K in liquid capital.
Do GLP-1 medications cause muscle loss?
Peer-reviewed analyses of the registration trials show that a substantial share of the weight lost on GLP-1 therapy comes from lean mass, commonly reported between 20 and 40 percent across the class, with STEP 1 reporting roughly 45 percent for semaglutide and SURMOUNT-1 about 26 percent for tirzepatide. Some lean tissue reduction is normal in any weight loss, and in several trials lean mass as a proportion of total body mass improved, but the magnitude has prompted active clinical concern and a wave of research into mitigation.
Can strength training prevent muscle loss on GLP-1s?
The evidence supports it. The S-LiTE trial found supervised aerobic and resistance training of more than 150 minutes a week produced the best lean mass retention when combined with GLP-1 therapy, and a 2025 case series of patients who did resistance training 3 to 5 days a week with high protein intake reported two of three patients gaining lean soft tissue while dropping 27 to 33 percent of body weight. Randomized trials including LEAN-PREP are now testing this directly.
How much protein is recommended during GLP-1 treatment?
Published guidance suggests intakes above 1.2 g per kg of body weight per day, distributed evenly across meals, combined with resistance training. A crossover feeding study found that spreading protein evenly at roughly 25 to 30 g per meal increased muscle protein synthesis by 25 percent versus a skewed pattern. Individual needs vary and this is general information rather than medical advice, so patients should work with their own clinician.
Are GLP-1s hurting gym memberships?
The data indicates the opposite. A William Blair survey found 72 percent of GLP-1 users exercise more frequently after starting, with gym membership among users rising to 35 percent and to 62 percent among users under 45. European fitness membership grew from 71.4 million in 2024 to 75.5 million in 2025 during the same period. One analysis projected the gym and studio market would expand by roughly 20 percent, about 6.8 billion dollars, because of GLP-1 adoption.
Why is now a good time to invest in a strength training franchise?
Because the demand is arriving as clinical necessity rather than consumer fashion. Roughly 11 percent of US adults currently take a GLP-1, the trials document meaningful lean mass loss, resistance training is the evidence-backed mitigation, and PwC found that 41 percent of current users have never done strength training at all. That is a large population with a documented reason to lift and no idea how to start, which is precisely what a coached studio format solves.
Is the government subsidizing GLP-1 medications?
Yes. Agreements announced in November 2025 set a Medicare price near 245 dollars a month for injectable semaglutide and tirzepatide with beneficiary copays capped at 50 dollars, against list prices that had commonly run past 1,000 dollars. Medicare had been barred from covering weight-loss drugs since 2003, so CMS is implementing coverage through demonstration authorities including a Part D demonstration and the BALANCE model. State Medicaid programs gained access to the same pricing, and 13 states already covered GLP-1s for obesity as of January 2026.
Will GLP-1 coverage save the government money?
That is genuinely contested. The stated policy rationale is that treating obesity now lowers the cost of treating its consequences later, and CMS officials have said they expect long-run savings. Independent budget analysts project otherwise in the near term. The Congressional Budget Office estimated 38.8 billion dollars in added drug spending against 3.4 billion in medical savings through 2034, and a JAMA network evaluation projected 65.9 billion in costs against 18.2 billion in savings over ten years. CBO noted it was not aware of direct evidence that GLP-1 obesity treatment reduces other medical spending.
Which fitness concepts are most exposed to GLP-1 adoption?
Concepts positioned purely around weight loss and calorie burn are the most exposed, because the medication now delivers that outcome more easily, and PwC data shows group fitness frequency under pressure with 14 percent of users reducing classes against 11 percent increasing them. Concepts built around strength, coaching, and recovery sit on the other side of that shift, since they provide what the medication cannot and what its physiology makes necessary.
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I owned multiple Club Pilates studios before this. When I decided what to build next, STRIDE Fitness stood out.
Mayra Rosner, Owner, STRIDE Fitness Southampton
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